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What technologies do you see dominating the long-term development of alternative fuels like ammonia, methanol, and hydrogen?

Apr-2024

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Ujjal Mukherjee, Lummus Technology,

I see a variety of opportunities coming forth across a broader spectrum of timelines. In the medium term, blue hydrogen combined with carbon capture and storage will continue as the dominant technology. With the advancement of electrolysers incentivised by programmes such as the Inflation Reduction Act in the US, the cost of green hydrogen production will continue to drop. However, scaling to match blue hydrogen capacities will require a level of investment that only an enforceable penalty on CO2 production could justify.

I see niche areas with plentiful solar, wind or hydroelectric power as first adopters of large-scale green hydrogen projects, such as Neom in Saudi Arabia. In countries with an abundance of nuclear energy, such as Abu Dhabi, I soon see the production of pink hydrogen as a reality, especially post-COP28.

Pink hydrogen will be used first in the cement and steel industries and later in the refining and petrochemicals sector. In the long term, turquoise hydrogen produced by the direct conversion of methane to hydrogen and solid carbon could become attractive at scale, especially if combined with an electrical heat source from renewable power.

Ammonia and methanol will continue to see growth as hydrogen carriers. The current cost of renewable hydrogen production remains much higher than producing hydrogen via steam methane reforming. In the long term, large-scale use of renewable hydrogen will become economically viable driven by governmental policy incentives, maturation of electrolysers, and carbon dioxide (CO₂) taxation. Back cracking of ammonia using a catalytic process to produce hydrogen and nitrogen will become an attractive option. Produced hydrogen can be used in fuel cells for power packs. At scale, these power packs can replace marine fuel.

Firing of 100% hydrogen is technically feasible and tested, and it avoids the challenges associated with the use of ammonia as fuel. Using ammonia for direct firing will require careful consideration of burner types and the design of the selective catalytic reduction equipment. There are also lingering concerns about fugitive ammonia emissions leading to increased particulate matter (PM 2.5 and PM 10.0) when combined with other pollutants found in acid rain.

The use of methanol as a marine fuel will rise, especially with the growth of green methanol. Green methanol produced from sustainable biomass will see large-scale adoption in Asia, especially in India. Europe will see increased adoption of methanol from hydrogen produced with renewable power and captured CO2 (e-methanol).

Apr-2024